More Pork Produced, Less Available

The United States is producing more pork today, but there's less available for U.S. consumers. "Pork exports grew by 68 percent in the first half of the year and imports fell by 15 percent, meaning that 1.1 billion pounds less pork was available for domestic consumers," says Chris Hurt, Purdue University agricultural economist. "By the second quarter, U.S. pork production was 9 percent higher, but U.S. consumers had 6 percent less pork available to them." For all of 2008, per capita pork supplies available to U.S. consumers will be down about 5 percent. Supplies will drop an additional 2 percent to 3 percent in 2009, making pork available to U.S. consumers relatively tight over the next 18 months. Full story.

Price Impact Remains to be Seen

As there has never been this large influence on pork price from international trade, there is little historical experience to evaluate its impact on hog prices. As a result, the futures market is used to forecast prices for 51/52 percent lean carcasses. Chris Hurt, Purdue University, looks for prices to drop from the low $60s to the high $50s this month. For the fourth quarter, he looks for prices to average in the mid-$50s, recovering to the high $50s for first quarter 2009. Prices will peak in spring and summer next year, averaging in the mid-$60s. "Prices then drop seasonally into the high $50s for the final quarter of 2009," Hurt predicts. "In 2009, all price records will fall, with the year's average in the low $60s and record-high prices for each quarter."

Pork Exports Bring Revenue, Risk

USDA's Agricultural Outlook Report predicts that fiscal 2009, which begins in October, will see record pork exports and brisk beef business. Pork exports are expected to set a record at 1.8 million tons and bring in $4.6 billion. However, U.S. pork exports could take a hit if Russia cuts imports as threatened. Moscow's intervention in Georgia has increased tension between the United States and Russia, which has led to declines in pork markets. USDA estimates 2008 pork exports to reach 23 percent of U.S. pork production. While exports have supported hog prices, there's also risk. Producers now are subject to forces that shape global trade. That could be especially important this fall, as record slaughter is expected. Full story.

USDA Proposes Dower Cattle Ban

USDA's Food Safety and Inspection Service has proposed a rule to amend the federal meat inspection law to include a complete ban on the slaughter of cattle that become non-ambulatory after an initial inspection. If approved, the new proposal would address all cattle that are non-ambulatory at any point before slaughter. The animal would be disposed of properly, say officials. FSIS inspectors would tag these cattle as "U.S. condemned" and remove them from slaughter. "To maintain consumer confidence in the food supply, eliminate further misunderstanding of the rule and, ultimately, to make a positive impact on the humane handling of cattle, it is sound policy to simplify this matter by initiating a complete ban on the slaughter of downer cattle," Schafer contends. Full story.

AVMA Issues Statement on California Proposition 2

The American Veterinary Medical Association issued a statement last week explaining, in part: "The AVMA believes Proposition 2, 'Standards for Confining Farm Animals,' is admirable in its goal to improve the welfare of production farm animals; however, it ignores critical aspects of animal welfare that ultimately would threaten the well-being of the very animals it strives to protect."
    "Animal welfare is a complex issue and demands that decisions be based on science, tempered with compassion, and take into account all aspects of welfare. Changing housing standards without consideration of how this may affect other aspects of animal welfare, such as protection from disease and injury, will not be in the animals' or society's best interest," says David McCrystle, DVM, AVMA executive board chairman. Full story.

Cold Storage Report Shows Stability

USDA's Cold Storage report released last week showed the 5th straight month of stable meat and poultry stocks. At 2.3 billion pounds, stocks on July 31 were nearly 9 percent larger than last year, but just 0.5 percent larger than the June report. The frozen pork supply was down 5 percent from the previous month, but 8 percent higher than 2007. Pork belly stocks were down 20 percent from last month, but 87 percent higher than last year. Full story.

Ag Leaders Focus Research on Bioenergy

Archer Daniels Midland, Deere and Monsanto will join efforts to expand research on bioenergy from crop residues. The three will explore technologies and processes to turn corn stover into feed and bioenergy products. They will collaborate on environmentally and economically sustainable corn stover harvest, storage and transport methods. Corn stover is a cellulosic feedstock for biofuel production. Full story.

Farms Must be Large to Support Farm Families

High input costs and volatility in commodity prices causing fluctuations in farm income have forced changes on farm families, according to a report from Gary Hachfeld, University of Minnesota agricultural business management educator. Some have taken off-farm jobs and shifted to part-time farming, but for many full-time farm families, survival has meant expanding. Full story.

Renewable Energy Alliance Asks For Plan

The National 25x'25 Alliance wants policy makers to develop a complete national energy plan that will guide the nation to a clean and secure energy future. It contends it would create new jobs, strengthen the economy, improve national security and help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Ernie Shea, 25x'25 project coordinator, cites the endorsement of 25x'25 as a national energy goal. It calls on agricultural, forestry and other renewable resources to meet 25 percent of the nation's energy needs by 2025.The 25x'25 Alliance recommendations urge Congress and the next president "to take the steps necessary to achieve this bold goal and set the nation on the path to a clean, secure energy future." Full story.

Drug Weight Limit Restriction Removed

The Food and Drug Administration has approved the removal of the weight limit restriction on Denagard Liquid Concentrate. Pork producers can now use the product in pigs weighing more than 250 pounds. Denagard is approved to treat swine pneumonia caused by Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae and swine dysentery. Producers are encouraged to follow label directions and observe required withdrawal times. Full story.